Equity curve
2025-07-21 → 2026-07-06 (50 weeks)
Performance
| Metric | Strategy | SPY (hold) | SMH (hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 234.52% | 20.40% | 109.49% |
| CAGR | 252.60% | 21.38% | 116.36% |
| Max drawdown | -17.75% | -7.07% | -10.52% |
| Sharpe (rfr 4%) | 2.77 | 1.49 | 2.62 |
Upcoming signal
Based on data through 2026-07-03Capital to be deployed at next Monday's open: $
| Ticker | Allocation % | Allocation $ | 1-Week Change | 4-Week Change | Industry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANW | 33% | 14.42% | 27.94% | Technology: Computer Sftwr-Security | |
| DELL | 30% | -1.29% | -0.02% | Technology: Computer-Hardware/Perip | |
| CRWD | 23% | 10.67% | 15.63% | Technology: Computer Sftwr-Security | |
| FTNT | 13% | 3.24% | 8.00% | Technology: Computer Sftwr-Security |
Skipped (trending down): Computer-Data Storage, Elec-Semiconductor Equip
Weekly detail
* indicates positions sold mid-week on the 15% trailing stop
| Decision date | Entry date | Exit date | Strat. wk % | SPY wk % | SMH wk % | Cumulative % | # | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-28 | -2.09% | 1.39% | -0.31% | -2.09% | 4 | UI, SOFI, CRS, ATI |
| 2025-07-26 | 2025-07-28 | 2025-08-04 | -0.64% | -1.85% | -1.20% | -2.71% | 4 | GEV, SNPS, ABTC*, PTC |
| 2025-08-02 | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-11 | -2.10% | 1.88% | 2.87% | -4.76% | 4 | AMD, GEV, RBLX, VRT |
| 2025-08-09 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-18 | 0.14% | 0.85% | 0.14% | -4.62% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-08-16 | 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-25 | 4.57% | 0.18% | -0.40% | -0.27% | 3 | GLW, B, SOFI |
| 2025-08-23 | 2025-08-25 | 2025-09-02 | 0.95% | -1.02% | -3.63% | 0.68% | 4 | B, UI, SOFI, CELH |
| 2025-08-30 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-08 | 11.27% | 1.74% | 4.26% | 12.03% | 5 | B, UI, SOFI, SATS, OKLO |
| 2025-09-06 | 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-15 | 8.91% | 1.70% | 2.94% | 22.02% | 9 | MU, B, STX, WDC, CLS, NTAP, SATS, P, FLEX |
| 2025-09-13 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-22 | 4.87% | 0.67% | 4.10% | 27.95% | 6 | MU, GLW, WBD, STX, WDC, CRDO |
| 2025-09-20 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-29 | -1.11% | 0.33% | 2.65% | 26.54% | 6 | MU, GLW, WBD, STX, WDC, CRDO* |
| 2025-09-27 | 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-06 | 14.84% | 1.09% | 6.41% | 45.31% | 5 | MU, GLW, WBD, STX, WDC |
| 2025-10-04 | 2025-10-06 | 2025-10-13 | -5.33% | -1.63% | -2.31% | 37.57% | 6 | MU, STX*, WBD, WDC*, CRDO, P |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | 8.41% | 1.01% | 2.52% | 49.14% | 4 | MU, P, OKLO*, RGTI* |
| 2025-10-18 | 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-27 | 5.88% | 2.31% | 3.37% | 57.91% | 4 | MU, GLW, STX, WDC |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-10-27 | 2025-11-03 | 5.74% | 0.43% | 2.80% | 66.97% | 6 | MU, GLW, WBD, STX, WDC, CLS |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-10 | 4.32% | -1.23% | -2.76% | 74.18% | 6 | MU, GLW, WBD, STX, WDC, CLS* |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-17 | -3.65% | -1.11% | -4.37% | 67.82% | 6 | MU, GLW, STX*, WBD, WDC*, SNDK* |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-24 | -8.36% | -1.05% | -3.78% | 53.78% | 5 | MU*, WBD, WDC*, SNDK*, CIEN* |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-24 | 2025-12-01 | 6.03% | 2.43% | 6.03% | 63.06% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-08 | 5.52% | 1.15% | 5.52% | 72.06% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-15 | -2.71% | -0.12% | -2.71% | 67.40% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | 5.85% | 0.03% | 1.51% | 77.18% | 7 | MU, GLW, WBD, B, STX, WDC, SATS |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-29 | -3.44% | 0.53% | 0.07% | 71.10% | 3 | TSLA, MU, APP |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-12-29 | 2026-01-05 | 5.26% | -0.15% | 5.26% | 80.09% | 1 | SMH |
| 2026-01-03 | 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-12 | 6.96% | 0.60% | 1.03% | 92.62% | 4 | ASML, MU, LRCX, SCCO |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-20 | 5.35% | -1.33% | 1.94% | 102.93% | 6 | ASML, MU, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, SCCO |
| 2026-01-17 | 2026-01-20 | 2026-01-26 | 4.48% | 1.32% | 1.33% | 112.03% | 5 | ASML, MU, LRCX, AMAT, SCCO |
| 2026-01-24 | 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | 1.66% | -0.13% | 0.12% | 115.55% | 6 | ASML, MU, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC*, SCCO |
| 2026-01-31 | 2026-02-02 | 2026-02-09 | 1.39% | -0.02% | 0.01% | 118.56% | 9 | MU*, SCCO, RIO, GLW, STX, FCX, WDC, SNDK*, SLB |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-09 | 2026-02-17 | 2.16% | -1.35% | 0.95% | 123.27% | 6 | GLW, MT, NUE, LITE, CIEN, STLD |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-17 | 2026-02-23 | 5.40% | 1.13% | 2.70% | 135.32% | 7 | ASML, LRCX, AMAT, ENTG, SCCO, RIO, GLW |
| 2026-02-21 | 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | 3.00% | -1.33% | -3.95% | 142.38% | 5 | DE, GLW, LITE, CIEN, TPL |
| 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-09 | -9.77% | -1.81% | -5.41% | 118.71% | 7 | GLW*, KEYS, LITE*, CIEN*, TPL, ATI, CRS |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-16 | 1.18% | 0.30% | 5.16% | 121.29% | 3 | CNQ, TPL, CRS |
| 2026-03-14 | 2026-03-16 | 2026-03-23 | -0.35% | -1.27% | -0.45% | 120.53% | 6 | MU, CNQ, SNDK, WDC, OXY, CIEN |
| 2026-03-21 | 2026-03-23 | 2026-03-30 | 0.00% | -2.73% | -4.00% | 120.53% | 0 | SPY below its 200-day MA |
| 2026-03-28 | 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-06 | 0.00% | 2.46% | 4.27% | 120.53% | 0 | SPY below its 200-day MA |
| 2026-04-04 | 2026-04-06 | 2026-04-13 | 0.00% | 3.29% | 10.41% | 120.53% | 0 | SPY below its 200-day MA |
| 2026-04-11 | 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | 4.07% | 4.63% | 6.88% | 129.50% | 6 | MU, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, GLW, SNDK |
| 2026-04-18 | 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-27 | 5.72% | 0.62% | 9.59% | 142.63% | 8 | MU, SCCO, GLW, SNDK, WDC, RIO, STX, FCX* |
| 2026-04-25 | 2026-04-27 | 2026-05-04 | 12.50% | 0.97% | 0.64% | 172.96% | 6 | MU, INTC, TXN, SNDK, WDC, STX |
| 2026-05-02 | 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-11 | 27.28% | 2.27% | 11.28% | 247.43% | 6 | MU, INTC, TXN, SNDK, STX, WDC |
| 2026-05-09 | 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-18 | -5.17% | 0.46% | -0.84% | 229.48% | 6 | MU, SNDK*, STX, DELL, WDC, GLW |
| 2026-05-16 | 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-26 | 7.75% | 1.38% | 4.62% | 255.02% | 6 | MU, PANW, STX, WDC, GLW, CRWD |
| 2026-05-23 | 2026-05-26 | 2026-06-01 | 9.38% | 0.71% | 0.76% | 288.31% | 7 | PANW, DELL, CRWD, GLW, FTNT, CIEN, LITE |
| 2026-05-30 | 2026-06-01 | 2026-06-08 | -6.92% | -1.59% | 0.19% | 261.42% | 7 | MU*, DELL*, SNDK*, PANW, STX, CRWD, WDC* |
| 2026-06-06 | 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | 5.43% | 1.14% | 7.75% | 281.04% | 5 | CSCO, PANW, STX, WDC, FTNT |
| 2026-06-13 | 2026-06-15 | 2026-06-22 | 6.74% | -0.30% | 4.17% | 306.74% | 7 | MU, ASML, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, SNDK, DELL |
| 2026-06-20 | 2026-06-22 | 2026-06-29 | -8.93% | -1.49% | -8.25% | 270.42% | 7 | MU*, INTC, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, SNDK*, TXN* |
| 2026-06-27 | 2026-06-29 | 2026-07-06 | -9.69% | 1.66% | -1.30% | 234.52% | 3 | MU*, SNDK*, GLW* |
| 2026-07-04 | 2026-07-06 | 2026-07-13 | — | — | — | — | 4 | PANW, DELL, CRWD, FTNT |