Equity curve
2025-07-07 → 2026-06-22 (50 weeks)
Performance
| Metric | Strategy | SPY (hold) | SMH (hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 351.92% | 21.28% | 138.66% |
| CAGR | 382.61% | 22.30% | 147.87% |
| Max drawdown | -11.63% | -7.07% | -10.52% |
| Sharpe (rfr 4%) | 3.54 | 1.59 | 3.28 |
Upcoming signal
Based on data through 2026-06-19Capital to be deployed at next Monday's open: $
| Ticker | Allocation % | Allocation $ | Industry |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 33% | Technology: Computer-Data Storage | |
| INTC | 17% | Technology: Elec-Semiconductor Mfg | |
| LRCX | 13% | Technology: Elec-Semiconductor Equip | |
| AMAT | 12% | Technology: Elec-Semiconductor Equip | |
| DELL | 9% | Technology: Computer-Hardware/Perip | |
| KLAC | 9% | Technology: Elec-Semiconductor Equip | |
| SNDK | 8% | Technology: Computer-Data Storage |
Skipped (trending down): Transportation-Truck
Weekly detail
* indicates positions sold mid-week on the 15% trailing stop
| Decision date | Entry date | Exit date | Strat. wk % | SPY wk % | SMH wk % | Cumulative % | # | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | 2025-07-07 | 2025-07-14 | 1.61% | -0.03% | 1.61% | 1.61% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-07-12 | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-21 | -1.39% | 0.90% | 1.53% | 0.20% | 7 | JBL, FLEX, CLS, CRDO, ABTC*, XXI*, FN |
| 2025-07-19 | 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-28 | -0.31% | 1.39% | -0.31% | -0.11% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-07-26 | 2025-07-28 | 2025-08-04 | -0.43% | -1.85% | -1.20% | -0.53% | 4 | APH, TEL, WBD, OKLO* |
| 2025-08-02 | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-11 | -1.33% | 1.88% | 2.87% | -1.86% | 3 | AMD, APH, TEL |
| 2025-08-09 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-18 | 0.14% | 0.85% | 0.14% | -1.72% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-08-16 | 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-25 | 1.79% | 0.18% | -0.40% | 0.04% | 8 | NEM, GFI, KGC, VIV, TLK, ABTC*, CDE, TIMB |
| 2025-08-23 | 2025-08-25 | 2025-09-02 | -3.63% | -1.02% | -3.63% | -3.59% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-08-30 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-08 | 4.26% | 1.74% | 4.26% | 0.51% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-09-06 | 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-15 | 10.98% | 1.70% | 2.94% | 11.55% | 7 | MU, STX, P, NTAP, WDC, SATS, CIEN |
| 2025-09-13 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-22 | 7.01% | 0.67% | 4.10% | 19.36% | 6 | WBD, SATS, CIEN, ABTC, OKLO, LITE |
| 2025-09-20 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-29 | -1.58% | 0.33% | 2.65% | 17.48% | 8 | MU, WBD, STX, P, NTAP, WDC, OKLO*, CIEN |
| 2025-09-27 | 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-06 | 14.98% | 1.09% | 6.41% | 35.08% | 5 | MU, WBD, STX, WDC, CIEN |
| 2025-10-04 | 2025-10-06 | 2025-10-13 | -3.52% | -1.63% | -2.31% | 30.33% | 6 | MU, WBD, STX*, WDC*, P, OKLO |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | 7.89% | 1.01% | 2.52% | 40.62% | 4 | MU, P, OKLO*, RGTI* |
| 2025-10-18 | 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-27 | 4.33% | 2.31% | 3.37% | 46.70% | 6 | MU, STX, WDC, P, CIEN, OKLO* |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-10-27 | 2025-11-03 | 5.50% | 0.43% | 2.80% | 54.77% | 7 | MU, WBD, STX, WDC, P, CIEN, SATS |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-10 | 4.06% | -1.23% | -2.76% | 61.05% | 7 | MU, WBD, STX, CLS*, WDC, P, CIEN |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-17 | -3.84% | -1.11% | -4.37% | 54.87% | 6 | MU, WBD, STX*, WDC*, CIEN, FSLR |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-24 | -8.10% | -1.05% | -3.78% | 42.32% | 5 | MU*, WBD, WDC*, CIEN*, SNDK* |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-24 | 2025-12-01 | 6.03% | 2.43% | 6.03% | 50.91% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-08 | 5.52% | 1.15% | 5.52% | 59.24% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-15 | -2.71% | -0.12% | -2.71% | 54.92% | 1 | SMH |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | 6.00% | 0.03% | 1.51% | 64.22% | 6 | MU, NEM, WBD, STX, DAL, WDC |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-29 | -2.27% | 0.53% | 0.07% | 60.49% | 4 | APP, MU, NEM, STX |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-12-29 | 2026-01-05 | 8.76% | -0.15% | 5.26% | 74.55% | 7 | MU, NEM, B, STX, WDC, AU, CIEN |
| 2026-01-03 | 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-12 | 6.20% | 0.60% | 1.03% | 85.37% | 3 | ASML, MU, LRCX |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-20 | 5.33% | -1.33% | 1.94% | 95.25% | 5 | ASML, MU, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC |
| 2026-01-17 | 2026-01-20 | 2026-01-26 | 4.30% | 1.32% | 1.33% | 103.64% | 6 | ASML, MU, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, NEM |
| 2026-01-24 | 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | 1.80% | -0.13% | 0.12% | 107.31% | 5 | ASML, MU, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC* |
| 2026-01-31 | 2026-02-02 | 2026-02-09 | -1.76% | -0.02% | 0.01% | 103.67% | 6 | MU*, SLB, STX, SNDK*, WDC, CIEN* |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-09 | 2026-02-17 | 4.68% | -1.35% | 0.95% | 113.19% | 5 | GLW, CIEN, LITE, ATI, CRS |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-17 | 2026-02-23 | 15.48% | 1.13% | 2.70% | 146.20% | 5 | CIEN, LITE, TPL, ATI, CRS |
| 2026-02-21 | 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | 7.10% | -1.33% | -3.95% | 163.69% | 5 | CIEN, LITE, TPL, ATI, CRS |
| 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-09 | -9.00% | -1.81% | -5.41% | 139.97% | 6 | CIEN*, LITE*, KEYS, TPL, ATI, CRS |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-16 | 0.53% | 0.30% | 5.16% | 141.24% | 4 | WDS, TPL, CRS, APA |
| 2026-03-14 | 2026-03-16 | 2026-03-23 | 0.57% | -1.27% | -0.45% | 142.61% | 8 | MU, SNDK, WDC, OXY, CIEN, LITE, WDS, NTR |
| 2026-03-21 | 2026-03-23 | 2026-03-30 | 0.00% | -2.73% | -4.00% | 142.61% | 0 | SPY below its 200-day MA |
| 2026-03-28 | 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-06 | 0.00% | 2.46% | 4.27% | 142.61% | 0 | SPY below its 200-day MA |
| 2026-04-04 | 2026-04-06 | 2026-04-13 | 0.00% | 3.29% | 10.41% | 142.61% | 0 | SPY below its 200-day MA |
| 2026-04-11 | 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | 4.39% | 4.63% | 6.88% | 153.25% | 7 | MU, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, GLW, STX, SNDK |
| 2026-04-18 | 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-27 | 8.62% | 0.62% | 9.59% | 175.08% | 6 | MU, STX, SNDK, WDC, UI, NOK |
| 2026-04-25 | 2026-04-27 | 2026-05-04 | 5.31% | 0.97% | 0.64% | 189.68% | 6 | MU, LRCX, KLAC, STX, SNDK, WDC |
| 2026-05-02 | 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-11 | 27.79% | 2.27% | 11.28% | 270.18% | 5 | MU, STX, SNDK, WDC, NOK |
| 2026-05-09 | 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-18 | -4.54% | 0.46% | -0.84% | 253.36% | 6 | MU, SNDK*, DELL, STX, WDC, NOK |
| 2026-05-16 | 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-26 | 7.32% | 1.38% | 4.62% | 279.21% | 6 | MU, STX, WDC, CIEN, NOK, LITE |
| 2026-05-23 | 2026-05-26 | 2026-06-01 | 11.13% | 0.71% | 0.76% | 321.41% | 7 | PANW, DELL, CRWD, FTNT, CIEN, NOK, LITE |
| 2026-05-30 | 2026-06-01 | 2026-06-08 | -6.89% | -1.59% | 0.19% | 292.38% | 7 | MU*, DELL*, PANW, CRWD, SNDK*, STX, WDC* |
| 2026-06-06 | 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | 8.09% | 1.14% | 7.75% | 324.13% | 5 | PANW, STX, WDC, FTNT, ODFL |
| 2026-06-13 | 2026-06-15 | 2026-06-22 | 6.55% | -0.30% | 4.17% | 351.92% | 7 | MU, ASML, LRCX, AMAT, DELL, KLAC, SNDK |
| 2026-06-20 | 2026-06-22 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | MU, INTC, LRCX, AMAT, DELL, KLAC, SNDK |